Isaias Hits Florida Near Destin; Gulf Oil Shut-Ins Ease to 57.5%

Updated Oct. 12, 4:55 p.m. ET: Gulf oil shut-ins fell to about 29.63%, or 604,503 barrels a day, as of 11 a.m. CDT Monday, down from 57.54% on Sunday, and gas shut-ins fell to 24.81%, or 531 million cubic feet a day, the Marine Minerals Administration said. Five production platforms remained evacuated. Brent crude settled up $1.93, or 1.8%, at $106.65 a barrel on Monday, Reuters reported, as attacks on Saudi Arabia outweighed the Gulf restart.

Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, at about 8:30 p.m. CDT on Friday, Oct. 9, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, the National Hurricane Center said. By Sunday, Oct. 11, U.S. Gulf of Mexico producers had restarted part of their output, and about 57.54% of daily oil production remained shut in, down from 71.51% on Friday, according to the Marine Minerals Administration.

This is a follow-up to our Friday report, Hurricane Isaias Shuts In About 72% of Gulf of Mexico Oil Output, which was published before the storm reached the coast.

Where and when did Isaias make landfall?

NWS Doppler radar data showed the eye came ashore near Destin around 8:30 p.m. CDT (0130 UTC Saturday) with 105 mph winds and an estimated minimum central pressure of 971 mb, the NHC said. That is Category 2 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The storm had been a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds earlier on Friday afternoon.

The NHC reported a wind gust of 116 mph at a station near Santa Rosa Sound, Florida, and a water level 5.6 feet above mean higher high water at a gauge in Panama City Beach. Isaias weakened quickly inland. By 1 a.m. CDT Saturday it was a post-tropical cyclone over southern Alabama with 65 mph winds, and by 4 a.m. CDT the NHC had dropped all storm surge and tropical storm warnings. The NHC forecast the system to dissipate on Sunday.

How much Gulf oil is still shut in?

Shut-ins fell over the weekend as crews returned to platforms, according to the Marine Minerals Administration's daily surveys, which reflect operator reports as of 11 a.m. CDT each day.

Measure	Fri., Oct. 9	Sat., Oct. 10	Sun., Oct. 11
Oil shut in, barrels a day	1,458,814 (71.51%)	1,402,692 (68.76%)	1,173,863 (57.54%)
Gas shut in, million cu. ft. a day	1,259.2 (58.84%)	1,229.2 (57.44%)	1,051 (49.11%)
Production platforms evacuated (of 371)	129 (34.77%)	113 (30.46%)	32 (8.63%)
Non-DP rigs evacuated (of 11)	8	8	1

Source: Marine Minerals Administration.

That means about 285,000 barrels a day of oil output came back between Friday and Sunday, based on the agency's figures. The agency said facilities will be inspected after the storm, and production from undamaged facilities will be brought back online once standard checks are complete. Damaged facilities may take longer. It said it updates the figures at 1 p.m. CDT each day.

How are oil prices reacting on Monday?

Oil rose despite the restart. Brent crude futures traded at about $106.76 a barrel at 8:45 a.m. ET Monday, up $2.04, or 1.95%, from Friday's settlement of $104.72, according to Yahoo Finance data. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude traded at about $93.75, up 2.07%.

Trading Economics said Brent rose above $105.5 on Monday to its highest in more than two weeks as Middle East tensions escalated, citing attacks on a Saudi Arabian airport and on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Saturday that a tanker exploded and caught fire after hitting a naval mine in the strait, Reuters reported. Separately, the White House's weekend diesel moves with Russia are covered in Trump Declares Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire After Diesel Waiver.

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